India , along with the rest of the world, has witnessed perceptible climate change marked by a rise in mean temperature and increased frequency of extreme rainfall events in the last three decades. Such a phenomenon causes fluctuation in production of major crops in different years, according to a statement of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.
It said the impact on climate change on Indian agriculture was studied under National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA). According to this study, ”rainfed rice yields in India are projected to reduce marginally (<2.5%) in 2050 and 2080 and irrigated rice yields by 7% in 2050 and 10% in 2080 scenarios. Further, wheat yield projected to reduce by 6-25% in 2100 and maize yields by 18-23%. Future climates are likely to benefit chickpea with increase in productivity (23-54%)”.
Vulnerability assessment of Indian Agriculture to climate change is undertaken by Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). Such an assessment was for 573 rural districts of India (excluding the Union Territories of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep), the statement placed in the Lok Sabha on February, 2021 said. Based on the vulnerability analysis, 109 districts out of 573 rural districts (19% of total districts) are ‘very high-risk’ districts, while 201 districts are risk districts.
”Integrated simulation modelling studies indicated that under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, maximum temperature is expected to increase by 1 to 1.3oC in 256 districts, by 1.3 to 1.6 oC in 157 districts (2020-2049). The increase ranged from <1.3 oC in 199 districts to >1.6 oC in 89 districts. Cultivation of wheat in these districts is likely to be affected by heat stress”.